Comparing the impact of high versus low lockdown severity on the mental health of young people in Australia during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Young Australians have been differentially affected by lockdowns and social restrictions during the COVID-19 pandemic. This study compared the mental health impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and associated restrictions for young people in two Australian states, Victoria and Queensland, with Victoria experiencing more days in lockdown and greater infection rates. An online survey was completed between 01/04/2021 and 31/07/2021 by 687 young people, aged 16 to 24 years; 337 from Victoria and 350 from Queensland. Levels of negative emotion feelings (as measured by the Depression Anxiety Stress Scale), and COVID-19 risk factors for negative emotions (such as financial hardship, education disruption, loneliness and household conflict), as well as protective factors (resilience and self-esteem) were compared between the Victorian and Queensland samples, also considering some early pandemic data and pre-pandemic norms. No significant differences in negative emotions were found between young people living in the two states, despite substantial differences in pandemic restrictions. The results indicated that young people in Queensland and Victoria had experienced similarly high levels of negative emotions, at levels also seen at the start of the pandemic in Victoria. This is of grave concern, requiring urgent attention as the pandemic continues.

Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States.

Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models provide specific, quantitative, and evaluable predictions that inform short-term decisions such as healthcare staffing needs, school closures, and allocation of medical supplies. Starting in April 2020, the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org/) collected, disseminated, and synthesized tens of millions of specific predictions from more than 90 different academic, industry, and independent research groups. A multimodel ensemble forecast that combined predictions from dozens of groups every week provided the most consistently accurate probabilistic forecasts of incident deaths due to COVID-19 at the state and national level from April 2020 through October 2021. The performance of 27 individual models that submitted complete forecasts of COVID-19 deaths consistently throughout this year showed high variability in forecast skill across time, geospatial units, and forecast horizons. Two-thirds of the models evaluated showed better accuracy than a naïve baseline model. Forecast accuracy degraded as models made predictions further into the future, with probabilistic error at a 20-wk horizon three to five times larger than when predicting at a 1-wk horizon. This project underscores the role that collaboration and active coordination between governmental public-health agencies, academic modeling teams, and industry partners can play in developing modern modeling capabilities to support local, state, and federal response to outbreaks.

Real-time pandemic surveillance using hospital admissions and mobility data.

Forecasting the burden of COVID-19 has been impeded by limitations in data, with case reporting biased by testing practices, death counts lagging far behind infections, and hospital census reflecting time-varying patient access, admission criteria, and demographics. Here, we show that hospital admissions coupled with mobility data can reliably predict severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission rates and healthcare demand. Using a forecasting model that has guided mitigation policies in Austin, TX, we estimate that the local reproduction number had an initial 7-d average of 5.8 (95% credible interval [CrI]: 3.6 to 7.9) and reached a low of 0.65 (95% CrI: 0.52 to 0.77) after the summer 2020 surge. Estimated case detection rates ranged from 17.2% (95% CrI: 11.8 to 22.1%) at the outset to a high of 70% (95% CrI: 64 to 80%) in January 2021, and infection prevalence remained above 0.1% between April 2020 and March 1, 2021, peaking at 0.8% (0.7-0.9%) in early January 2021. As precautionary behaviors increased safety in public spaces, the relationship between mobility and transmission weakened. We estimate that mobility-associated transmission was 62% (95% CrI: 52 to 68%) lower in February 2021 compared to March 2020. In a retrospective comparison, the 95% CrIs of our 1, 2, and 3 wk ahead forecasts contained 93.6%, 89.9%, and 87.7% of reported data, respectively. Developed by a task force including scientists, public health officials, policy makers, and hospital executives, this model can reliably project COVID-19 healthcare needs in US cities.

CoMET: a randomised controlled trial of co-commencement of metformin versus placebo as an adjunctive treatment to attenuate weight gain in patients with schizophrenia newly commenced on clozapine.

BACKGROUND: There is limited evidence on interventions to minimise weight gain at clozapine commencement. We compared the effect of adjunctive metformin versus placebo at clozapine initiation. METHODS: People with schizophrenia commencing on clozapine were randomised to either metformin or placebo for 24 weeks. The primary outcome was difference in the change of body weight. Secondary outcomes included comparative rates of weight gain of more than 5%, overall weight gain/loss, and differences in metabolic and psychosis outcomes. RESULTS: The study was closed prematurely in March 2020 due to COVID-19 restrictions. Ten participants were randomised to each of the metformin and placebo groups. Eight metformin group and five placebo group participants completed the trial and were included in the analysis. The study was insufficiently powered to detect difference between the metformin and placebo groups for the primary outcome of change in weight (0.09 kg vs 2.88 kg, p = 0.231). In terms of secondary outcomes, people in the metformin group were significantly less likely to gain >5% of their body weight (12.5% vs 80%, p = 0.015) and were more likely to lose weight (37.5% vs 0% p = 0.024) compared to placebo. There was no difference between the groups in terms of adverse drug reactions (ADRs). CONCLUSION: While limited by the forced premature closure of the trial due to COVID19, the findings from this randomised controlled trial are promising. Clozapine and metformin co-commencement may be a promising treatment to prevent clozapine-associated weight gain, especially given the low rates of ADRs associated with metformin. This supports the consideration of use of metformin to prevent weight gain in people initiated on clozapine; however, further studies are needed to confirm this finding. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ACTRN12617001547336.

Psychosocial and lifestyle predictors of distress and well-being in people with mental illness during the COVID-19 pandemic.

OBJECTIVES: People with mental illness may be vulnerable to psychological distress and reduced well-being during the COVID-19 pandemic. The aim of this study was to assess psychosocial and lifestyle predictors of distress and well-being in people with mental illness during the pandemic. METHOD: People with mental illness who participated in an exercise programme prior to the pandemic were invited to complete surveys about mental health and lifestyle corresponding to before and during the pandemic. RESULTS: Social support reduced, alcohol intake increased, and sleep quality and diet worsened during the pandemic, contributing to distress. Psychological distress was associated with the two or more mental illnesses, and negatively associated with having a physical disease. Better diet appeared to protect against increases in distress; loneliness hindered improvements in well-being. CONCLUSIONS: Healthy lifestyle programmes designed to improve social connection may improve health for people with mental illnesses during and after the COVID-19 pandemic.

Demand for self-managed online telemedicine abortion in eight European countries during the COVID-19 pandemic: a regression discontinuity analysis.

OBJECTIVES: In most European countries, patients seeking medication abortion during the COVID-19 pandemic are still required to attend healthcare settings in person. We assessed whether demand for self-managed medication abortion provided by online telemedicine increased following the emergence of COVID-19. METHODS: We examined 3915 requests for self-managed abortion to online telemedicine service Women on Web (WoW) between 1 January 2019 and 1 June 2020. We used regression discontinuity to compare request rates in eight European countries before and after they implemented lockdown measures to slow COVID-19 transmission. We examined the prevalence of COVID-19 infection, the degree of government-provided economic support, the severity of lockdown travel restrictions and the medication abortion service provision model in countries with and without significant changes in requests. RESULTS: Five countries showed significant increases in requests to WoW, ranging from 28% in Northern Ireland (97 requests vs 75.8 expected requests, p=0.001) to 139% in Portugal (34 requests vs 14.2 expected requests, p<0.001). Two countries showed no significant change in requests, and one country, Great Britain, showed an 88% decrease in requests (1 request vs 8.1 expected requests, p<0.001). Among countries with significant increases in requests, abortion services are provided mainly in person in hospitals or abortion is unavailable and international travel was prohibited during lockdown. By contrast, Great Britain implemented a fully remote no-test telemedicine service. CONCLUSION: These marked changes in requests for self-managed medication abortion during the COVID-19 pandemic demonstrate demand for remote models of care, which could be fulfilled by expanding access to medication abortion by telemedicine.

Preferences of people with mental illness for engaging in exercise programs under COVID-19 restrictions.

OBJECTIVES: People with mental illness may be vulnerable to decline in mental health and reduced physical activity because of the COVID-19 pandemic and associated restrictions. The aim of this study was to inform the design of physical activity interventions for implementation under these conditions to improve/maintain well-being and physical activity in this population. METHODS: People with mental illness who had participated in a physical activity program prior to the pandemic were invited to complete a survey about the impact of COVID-19 on mental health and physical activity and their preferences for engaging in a physical activity program under pandemic-related restrictions. RESULTS: More than half the 59 respondents reported worse mental health and lower physical activity during the pandemic. The preferred format for a physical activity program was one-on-one exercise instruction in-person in a park. Program components endorsed as helpful included incentivization, provision of exercise equipment and fitness devices, and daily exercise programs. About a third of the participants reported limitations in using technology for a physical activity program. CONCLUSIONS: In-person exercise support is preferred by people with mental illnesses during pandemic-related restrictions. Enablement strategies such as providing equipment and self-monitoring devices should be utilized; assistance may be needed to incorporate the use of technology in exercise programs.